Refined premiums hold as futures soften (ICUMSA 45 at US$ 550–595/MT CFR)
By Lakay Business — Packer of Record, Brazil
Executive summary
Refined Brazilian sugar (ICUMSA 45) traded at US$ 550–595/MT CFR across selected lanes in mid-October. Brazil refined FOB references late September hovered near US$ 467/MT. Raw sugar futures fell to US$ 14.97/lb (~US$ 330/MT), widening the spread between commodity benchmarks and certified, ready-to-ship product. The market is well-supplied, but buyers continue to pay for specification control, documentation integrity, and reliable logistics.
1) Price benchmarks (October snapshot)
- ICUMSA 45 (CFR, verified offers 12–18 Oct): US$ 550–595/MT
- Brazil refined FOB (29 Sep reference): ~US$ 467/MT
- Raw sugar futures (24 Oct): US$ 14.97/lb (~US$ 330/MT), ~8% lower m/m and ~32% lower y/y.
Why the gap? Refining, packing, finance, insurance, and freight add cost; the bigger driver is risk transfer. Buyers pay a premium for COA in the seller’s name, SGS at load and discharge, and traceable lots that clear without drama.
2) Fundamentals: plenty of cane, uneven yield
Brazil’s Centre–South posted higher crush in late September, but sucrose content slipped (≈154.6 kg/ton vs ~160 kg/ton last year). Effective sugar per ton is lower than headline crush implies. India and Thailand signal stronger output into the northern-hemisphere season, reinforcing a “comfortable” supply picture.
Demand is steady into Africa and the Middle East for refined grades. Trading desks are price-sensitive as futures soften, but end-users continue to prefer spec-true, traceable product that avoids delays and claims. That preference props up refined premiums even in a soft tape.
3) Currency, freight, and contract structure
- FX: A softer BRL sustains USD competitiveness. Sudden BRL strength would squeeze exporters unless CFR is adjusted.
- Freight: Current CFR ranges already embed shipping risk from Santos/Paranaguá. Any spike in container rates or port congestion moves CFR first, not FOB.
- Terms: Price depends on instruments (DLC/SBLC), credit tenor, volumes, laycan discipline, and whether SGS is required at both ends.
4) Lane illustrations (indicative, subject to contract)
Refined ICUMSA 45, CFR: high-throughput African West Coast lanes tend to clear near the lower-middle of the range; longer-haul with tighter documentation standards trend higher within US$ 550–595/MT. Small parcels, stricter branding/labeling, or tight delivery windows lift the number.
Interpretation, not a quote: These are market-indicative levels to frame negotiations; final price = spec + volume + terms + week-of-booking freight.
5) What professionals care about now
- Spec discipline: ICUMSA, moisture, ash, grain size, and foreign matter tolerances. Fail here and you pay twice: discount at discharge plus reputational cost.
- Document integrity: COA in seller’s name, clean bills, and aligned SGS protocols end-to-end.
- Traceability: Lot-level QR and independent inspection cut counterparty risk and shorten disputes.
6) Risk map (Q4 2025)
- Policy/export cadence in India/Thailand: faster flows compress refined premiums.
- Brazilian mix (sugar vs ethanol): crude/ethanol parity can shift output; watch ATR/Pol and hydrous parity.
- Freight volatility: Red Sea/Suez reroutes, container tightness, or port congestion can reprice CFR overnight.
- Quality scrutiny: Stricter acceptance testing increases claims probability; premium brands benefit, marginal suppliers struggle.
7) Outlook
Baseline: sideways-to-soft raw futures; resilient premiums for refined, certified supply. Tightness, if any, will be logistics-driven (vessels, containers, holidays), not cane-driven. Buyers looking to de-risk Q4 should lock allocations now and negotiate delivery flexibility rather than gamble on cheaper prints.
8) Buyer playbook (practical)
- Anchor negotiations to the observed US$ 550–595/MT CFR band, then price the extras: labeling, private-brand, dual-port SGS, and delivery windows.
- Protect with precise spec language and inspection points at load and discharge.
- Hedge timing risk via staggered liftings and optioned laycans instead of chasing a perfect bottom.
- Verify traceability (lot-level QR + COA) before finance instruments go operative.